Climate-Proofing Our Society: One Rare Event At the Time

Expecting and preparing for rare climate events can help us better manage the impacts of climate change

Recently, I have been thinking a lot about how rare events can sometimes make it harder for us to keep up with the effects of climate change. Luckily, I’m not the only one thinking about the topic, and a new research paper has taken the task of proposing solutions to this problem.

Climate change is a growing concern for not only climate activists but also scientists and policymakers worldwide. That’s mainly because the unpredictability of climate events poses a significant challenge to preparing for and mitigating their impacts.

In a recent paper titled “Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate,” published in Earth’s Future, Dr. Sherwood and their collaborators address something that some of my readers have been wondering for a while: the limitations of current climate models. Additionally, they propose new strategies to better anticipate and manage climate risks. Let’s call it a climate action Blueprint.

Sometimes, people get very confused by this, but climate change isn’t just about gradual warming; it’s about how this warming affects weather patterns and extreme events. For what it’s worth, things could easily go the opposite direction.

But one of the most important factors in climate change is that things become so complex that climate models sometimes fail to predict certain events.

For instance, the U.S. Pacific Northwest experienced an unprecedented heatwave in 2021, with temperatures soaring more than 9°F (5°C) above previous records. Surprisingly, this caught the climate science community off guard despite models predicting warmer-than-average conditions. This surprise wasn’t good, let me tell you.

Similar surprises occurred with catastrophic floods in Libya in 2023 and China and record-breaking wildfires in Canada. Indeed, 2023 wasn’t an easy year climate-wise.

The authors of the paper argue that two main factors have narrowed our perceptions of climate change risks: 1) our reliance on models that don’t account for enough relevant factors, and 2) a tendency toward linear thinking.

Society often focuses on the expected gradual consequences of climate change, overlooking high-impact, low-likelihood events, and tipping points, which are usually the ones with the most catastrophic effects for human populations. Additionally, these are regime shifts where systems can change rapidly and irreversibly, posing significant risks.

So, to address these challenges, Sherwood and their collaborators pose two critical questions for climate scientists:

• What are the high-impact, low-likelihood hazards and irreversible changes that society should worry about, and how can their risks be measured and communicated?
• How can scientists identify achievable and safe pathways to a future climate that also meets human needs?

However, things are not as easy as they sound. Answering these questions requires a broader array of risks than traditionally considered. Scientists must examine how these risks affect not just the climate but also society and the larger earth system.

This effort will likely involve interdisciplinary collaboration and new modeling approaches that better represent tipping points, low-likelihood events, and other physical and human systems aspects. In other words, it will require better coordination and communication… Challenge accepted!

Sherwood and other collaborators also emphasize the need for an integrative approach to climate science. What do they mean by that?

Current models and scenarios often fail to capture the full extent of interactions and uncertainties between physical, ecological, and social systems. For example, understanding how climate change impacts forests requires not only climate data but also insights into forest ecology, human land use, and economic factors. We can’t draw an accurate picture if we don’t integrate these factors.

Likewise, the authors call for climate science to become more interdisciplinary, combining physical science with insights from ecology, sociology, and other fields. Basically, the so-called holistic approach. This integration can help identify and quantify known and novel physical risks, including those arising from interactions with ecosystems and society, or socio-ecological relationships and synergies.

But the authors don’t end here, they also propose some action plans. To better anticipate climate risks, Sherwood et al. propose several strategies:

• Safe Landing Pathways Exploration: Identifying safe trajectories requires a highly interdisciplinary approach to explore the effects of interacting climate change mitigation and adaptations. This involves, for example, considering a wide range of possible futures, including tipping point crossings and temporary disruptions by large events like volcanic eruptions that, despite not being driven by climate change, could tip the balance in the wrong direction.
• Signposts of Change for Adaptation: Developing indicators that signal when adaptation strategies need to be adjusted can help manage the greatest risks more predictably. Here’s where Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning come in handy. For example, closely monitoring sea level rise in specific regions can inform local adaptation plans and help change strategies as new data is collected.
• Characterizing High-Impact, Low-Likelihood Risks: Focusing on extreme events and their potential impacts is crucial. This involves analyzing rare but significant events, such as unprecedented heatwaves or severe droughts, and understanding their consequences. Yes, they are less common, but also more devastating when they happen.

As usual, one of the key challenges in addressing climate change is effectively communicating risks to the non-scientific public and policymakers. Sherwood et al. highlight the importance of clear communication in conveying climate risks and coordinating across scientific disciplines. For example, I’m writing about climate change research and digesting it for the non-scientific audience here on Medium.

Indeed, communicating climate risk to the public is as important as ever. Uncertainty has always complicated this already difficult task. But we must remember that concrete scenarios are more easily grasped than abstractions, and illustrating realistic possible pathways and their implications can inform the debate on solutions. And we, scientists need to keep this in mind when disseminating our results: who will read them, and what take-home messages do we want to highlight?

The research by Sherwood et al. underscores the need for a paradigm shift in how climate risks are studied, perceived, and addressed. By expecting and preparing for unexpected climate extremes, society can better adapt to and mitigate the impacts of a warming future while reducing the impacts on its population. Of course, this requires a collaborative effort across disciplines, innovative modeling approaches, and effective communication strategies, and we need to be ready for the challenge.

Climate change is a complex and multifaceted challenge that demands a holistic approach. Integrating insights from various fields, developing new models, and communicating risks can help build a more resilient society for present and future generations. These strategies could offer a pathway toward a safer and more sustainable future. To put our best food forward, we need to combine many lines of evidence and work. A good strategy could save millions of lives.