Can We Remove 9 Billion Tons of CO₂ in Time?

To avoid climate disaster and meet the Paris Agreement, we must remove 7 to 9 billion tons of CO₂ annually — equivalent to the absorption capacity of 322 to 413 billion trees each year. But how?

I’ve been a Climate Change scientist for over a decade. In the process, I have learned so much from biology to geology, environmental sciences, society, and even policy-making. However, there was something that I thought that was missing from our research efforts. Let’s call it a research blind spot: how far should we go to meet the Paris Agreement? Are our current efforts enough?

Well, imagine my excitement when a new report compiled the data to answer exactly this.

The latest “State of Carbon Dioxide Removal” (CDR) report highlights a critical requirement: the world needs to extract 7 to 9 billion tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere every year by mid-century to to limit global warming to 1.5°C as stipulated by the Paris Agreement. Let’s put this into perspective. Removing 7 to 9 billion tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere annually is equivalent to the absorption capacity of approximately 322 to 413 billion trees annually.

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is defined as any “human activity that captures CO₂ from the atmosphere and stores it for decades to millennia.” Alongside rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the scaling up of novel CDR and the expansion of land-based CDR are urgent priorities if we are to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

There are many CDR methods, from the much-hyped artificial carbon capture and storage (CCS) to nature-based solutions such as growing trees and restoring peatlands. Each method has different levels of readiness, potential and durability.

The new report, led by experts from Oxford University’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), emphasizes the necessity of scaling up CDR alongside reducing emissions to meet climate goals. One without the other will take us nowhere.

These are not news. Despite significant efforts, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, posing a significant challenge to the Paris Agreement’s targets. According to Dr. Jan Minx, head of the MCC working group on Applied Sustainability Science, “Although reducing emissions is the primary way to achieve net-zero, CDR has a critical role to play.”

I know what you are thinking, though: where are we currently for annual CDR? Well, currently the world removes around 2 billion tons of CO₂ annually, primarily through conventional CDR methods such as afforestation and reforestation. However, while effective, these methods, in their current stage, are not enough to meet the Paris Agreement targets alone. More needs to be done; these methods need to be scaled up, and innovation needs to kick in faster than ever.

So, let’s look at the possibility of scaling up nature-based approaches, such as afforestation, reforestation, and soil carbon sequestration, which offers a promising pathway to meet our climate goals. The good thing is that these methods, which involve enhancing natural processes to capture and store carbon, have the highest readiness and mitigation potential.

Soil carbon sequestration, in particular, holds significant promise. For instance, we can increase carbon storage in soils by improving agricultural practices, such as no-till farming, cover cropping, and agroforestry. These practices not only enhance carbon storage but also improve soil health, boost agricultural productivity, and provide resilience against climate impacts. So, a win-win approach for everyone in the long run.

However, we need supportive policies, financial incentives, and widespread adoption of best practices to scale up these nature-based solutions. Governments can play a crucial role in this battle. For example, by providing subsidies for sustainable farming practices, funding research on soil carbon sequestration, and creating carbon markets that reward farmers for their efforts.

Additionally, education and outreach programs can help farmers and land managers understand the benefits of these practices and how to implement them effectively. I have participated in many of these programs, so I know too well how effective they can be! On top of that, collaboration between governments, NGOs, and the private sector is essential to drive the large-scale adoption of nature-based solutions and significantly impact global carbon removal efforts. That we are lagging at the moment doesn’t mean we can’t catch up in the future.

What else can be done, though? Can technology support Carbon Dioxide Removal, too?

The report notes that novel CDR methods like biochar, enhanced rock weathering, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are contributing only a tiny fraction of the total — less than 0.1%. These methods are essential for achieving durable and scalable carbon removal but require significant advancement and investment. By themselves, they aren’t enough.

Dr. Steve Smith from Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment emphasizes the urgency: “Given that the world’s decarbonization is not on track to meet the Paris temperature goal, there is a need to increase investment in CDR as well as in zero-emission solutions across the board.” This call to action is crucial. The report reveals that only 1.1% of the overall investment in climate-tech start-ups is directed towards CDR, highlighting a significant gap that needs to be addressed. And we mean NEED with capital letters.

However, the report also outlines several challenges and considerations in scaling up CDR technologies. One major concern is the potential impact on other critical areas such as food security, biodiversity, water supply, and the habitats of indigenous peoples. Dr. Jan Minx points out that “when scaling up carbon removal technologies, humanity must avoid jeopardizing other goals.” Therefore, sustainability criteria have been incorporated into the analysis to ensure that CDR methods do not undermine other essential objectives. That is, both environmental and social needs are equitably accounted for.

Dr. Oliver Geden from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) stresses the importance of a diverse approach: “Deploying a diverse CDR portfolio is a more robust strategy than focusing on just one or two methods.”

This diversity in methods is vital to mitigate the risks associated with any single technology and to enhance the overall effectiveness of carbon removal efforts. However, the current deployment and government proposals remain heavily concentrated on conventional forestry methods, which, of course, needs to change if we want to achieve the necessary targets.

More importantly, governments have a decisive role to play in creating the conditions necessary for scaling up CDR sustainably. The report urges policymakers to embed CDR policies within their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This integration is vital for creating a coherent and coordinated global effort. Additionally, better monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems are needed to ensure transparency and accountability in CDR activities. In other words, a synergy between international treaties and parties could be essential to meet these goals.

Much of the current demand for CDR is driven by voluntary commitments from companies to purchase carbon removal credits. While this is a positive trend, it is not sufficient to achieve the required scale. Far from it. In fact, Dr. Matthew J. Gidden, a Senior Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), highlights the risk of delay: “It is clear that delaying crucial emissions reductions only exacerbates the need for mitigation in the future. But the longer the delay, the more limited the role that sustainable CDR can play.”

The path to meeting the Paris Agreement goals is clear but challenging. It requires a concerted effort to rapidly reduce emissions and scale up a diverse portfolio of CDR methods. While complex, his dual approach is essential for mitigating the impacts of climate change and ensuring a sustainable future. There’s no other way.

The “State of Carbon Dioxide Removal” report provides a comprehensive roadmap for achieving the necessary CO₂ removal to meet global climate goals. The insights and recommendations from this report are invaluable for policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders as they work together to address the pressing challenge of climate change. However, they need to be taken seriously. Otherwise, they’d become useless.

To borrow the words of the famous naturalist John Muir, “When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe.” This interconnectedness is at the heart of the climate challenge.