Can More Snowfall Save Patagonia’s Glaciers from the Impacts of Global Warming?

The fight to preserve Patagonia’s glaciers hinges on snowfall and decisive climate action.

Sometimes, life has a way to surprise you. 

2020 wasn’t an easy year for anyone. For us, it came with lots of mixed feelings and events. On the one hand, we welcomed our firstborn right before the Pandemic hit lockdown level. I wasn’t happy about taking him to daycare at six weeks old, so being able to telework and spend his first year together was an invaluable gift. 

However, things weren’t all perfect on our side. Right after we had moved from Atlanta to a college town in the Midwest, where I was given a Visiting Assistant Professor position, we got a call from my husband’s family. Her mother was dying. 

We didn’t hesitate to pack up everything, finalize our baby’s passport paperwork in the most epic way, and fly to his home country, where we ended up spending three months helping the family. 

In a way, we were lucky that we didn’t have a cat or a dog to care for, so our arrangements were a lot simpler. But we did have a saltwater tank. We managed to find someone to come feed the fish, but maintenance was postponed until we returned.

On our way back after three months overseas, we were quite scared about the tank. Would we find anything still alive? Corals are very sensitive to abrupt changes and usually require weekly maintenance. Three months was way beyond what we were comfortable with, but family was more important. 

To our surprise, though, most of the tank was completely alive. It was nasty, don’t get me wrong, but alive. However, we knew that it couldn’t have survived many more weeks, so we returned at the right time. 

What about the Earth’s landscapes? As the planet warms, some ecosystems seem to be surviving. But is this going to be the case forever? What would happen if we fail to act and we cross a point of no return, a tipping point? 

Let’s see what science has to say about glaciers. 

Glaciers in southern Patagonia have managed to hold their ground, even as ice worldwide has been retreating at alarming rates. But what’s their secret? 

According to a recent study in Scientific Reports, it’s all about precipitation. Increased snowfall has buffered the glaciers against rising temperatures. But not all that glitters is gold. This natural shield might not hold up for much longer, especially if we fail to cut greenhouse gas emissions soon.

Precipitation drives western Patagonian glacier variability and may curb future ice mass loss – Scientific Reports

Scientific Reports – Precipitation drives western Patagonian glacier variability and may curb future ice mass loss

The research, led by Dr. Matthias Troch, zoomed in on three glaciers in the Southern Patagonian Icefield, the largest temperate icefield in the Southern Hemisphere. These glaciers sit on the wetter, ocean-facing side of the Patagonian Andes, where precipitation has played a crucial role in their behavior. 

Using a powerful numerical model and evidence from sediment cores collected in nearby fjords, Dr. Troch and his team explored how precipitation and temperature shaped the glaciers over the last 6,000 years (we love long time periods, don’t we?). Then, they turned their attention to the future to see how these glaciers might fare under various climate scenarios.

But how did they simulate glacier dynamics? Let’s have a snapshot of the Methods!

The researchers used NASA’s Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model to understand what drives glacier changes. Then, they plugged in historical data about temperature and precipitation to simulate glacier fluctuations over millennia. 

A key piece of the puzzle was a sediment core taken from a fjord near the glaciers, providing a physical record of glacier retreat and advance. This helped validate their model, ensuring its predictions lined up with the historical evidence. Once confident in the model’s accuracy, the team ran future scenarios, testing what would happen to the glaciers under different levels of warming and snowfall.

A very clever way to test the accuracy of a model, if you ask me. 

And what did the results have to say? Well, they provide a complex story. 

The simulations revealed that precipitation, not temperature, was the dominant factor controlling glacier size for about 4,500 of the last 6,000 years. This explains why glaciers in southern Patagonia have been relatively stable: recent decades have seen an uptick in snowfall, which has countered the melting caused by higher temperatures. 

However, this balance is delicate and can easily be disrupted.

Looking ahead, the researchers found that increased snowfall could still protect these glaciers — but only if warming in southern Patagonia during the 21st century is limited to 1.5°C above late 20th-century levels.

As Dr. Troch explained, “The study underscores the need for deep emission cuts to protect glaciers, which is vital to limit global sea-level rise.”

But there’s a darker side to the story. If emissions continue unchecked and temperatures rise to 2.8°C by the century’s end, the glaciers could shift into a new regime where rain replaces snow. This would speed up ice loss, leaving the glaciers with no natural defense against warming. “A warmer, wetter climate could lead to rapid melt,” said Dr. Troch, highlighting the urgency of climate action.

But what are the implications of this, beyond the Patagonian Landscapes?

Well, while the study focused on southern Patagonia, its implications stretch far beyond. Maritime glaciers in other parts of the world — like Norway, Alaska, and New Zealand — could behave similarly. These glaciers also rely on snowfall to offset melting, and their future hinges on how much warming occurs. 

Understanding these dynamics is critical not just for preserving local ecosystems but also for managing global sea-level rise.

Dr. Troch hopes the findings will inspire more research into how precipitation impacts glaciers in different regions. “The conclusions drawn in Southern Patagonia might be replicated in Norway, Alaska, Iceland, or New Zealand,” he said. 

Such work could provide a clearer picture of how maritime glaciers worldwide will respond to a changing climate.

So, what’s the takeaway here? 

Well, this study offers both hope and a warning. On the one hand, it shows that even in a warming world, there are ways to protect glaciers — if we act quickly and decisively. 

On the other, it’s a scary reminder of the consequences of inaction. 

The glaciers of southern Patagonia are hanging on, but their future depends on today’s choices. If emissions are curbed and warming is kept in check, snowfall could continue to safeguard glaciers. 

If not, the glaciers may enter a rapid decline, contributing to sea-level rise and losing their unique role in the region’s environment.

The message is clear: protecting glaciers isn’t just about preserving beautiful landscapes; it’s about the future of our planet. While the outlook for Patagonia’s glaciers may seem tied to uncertainty, one thing is certain: every degree and every action counts.