If We Assumed That Human-Induced Climate Change Isn’t Real

Mitigating and adapting to climate change could save economies, improve health, and reduce disaster impacts — far outweighing the risks of inaction

Even if I can’t reply to all the comments I receive in my stories, I try to read them all. I’m also trying to write follow-up stories based on the most common questions and comments.

One of my readers left a comment that made me think a lot. He mentioned that when someone questioned whether human-induced climate change was real and whether we should act on it, he always replied: What would happen if each of us were wrong?

What would happen if human-induced climate change was a hoax, and we still acted to adapt and mitigate it? What would happen if we did nothing? I decided to do this exercise for all of you.

Let’s imagine that we didn’t have strong evidence to prove that human-induced climate change is happening and will continue to happen. Then, we could divide the exercise into four different scenarios:

• Human-induced climate change isn’t happening AND we don’t take mitigation and adaptation measures.
• Human-induced climate change is happening AND we take mitigation and adaptation measures.
• Human-induced climate change is happening AND we don’t take mitigation and adaptation measures.
• Human-induced climate change isn’t happening AND we take mitigation and adaptation measures.

What would each scenario look like? I have talked plenty about what would happen if human-induced climate change is indeed happening, so today, to avoid making this story unnecessarily long, I will concentrate on the different outcomes depending on whether we take mitigation and adaptation measures — the two scenarios bolded above: Human-induced climate change isn’t indeed happening, and we either 1) take or 2) do not take action.

I will divide each scenario into four topics: Economy, Environment and Pollution, Human Health, and Natural Disasters. I will also use what the literature suggests about the consequences of climate change happening or not happening.

Human-Induced Climate Change Isn’t Happening AND We Take No Measures

Economy

Since we don’t change anything to accommodate climate change, we continue to rely on fossil fuels for energy production. We’ve always known that fossil fuels are a limited resource, but maybe we can keep exploring until we use every available drop.

We’d probably need to fight a few wars here and there, but we can keep relying on fossil fuels for a handful of decades. We may or may not be able to find other resources before they run out, but that’s a problem for future generations. They’ll figure it out.

True, we could start the energy transition now and protect the future economy, but some may say this is just supporting some parties’ agenda and not the entire humankind.

Environment and Pollution

Even if we don’t agree on whether human-induced climate change is happening, we can agree that fossil fuels cause pollution, right? Thus, if we keep relying on fossil fuels, pollution will continue; that’s just a fact. Remember, in this scenario, we are not changing anything; this is business as usual.

Smog and pollution keep increasing in the bigger cities, making them less and less habitable.

Should we mention oil spills, too? If we continue to rely on fossil fuels, they must be transported, usually by ships. Do we need to talk about the consequences of an oil spill? Who needs clean water, after all? It is not like we love beach vacations and seafood.

Human Health

We have discussed that not transitioning to green energies intrinsically means increasing atmospheric pollutants. Burning fossil fuels releases many atmospheric pollutants that significantly affect human health. Some examples include:

1. Particulate Matter (PM): These tiny particles can penetrate the lungs and even enter the bloodstream deep. They can cause respiratory issues, cardiovascular problems, and premature death.

2. Nitrogen Oxides (NOx): These gases contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone and fine particulate smog. Exposure to NOx can lead to respiratory diseases such as asthma and bronchitis and can reduce lung function.

3. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2): This gas can lead to acid rain, which affects water sources, crops, and forests. SO2 also contributes to particulate matter pollution, which causes respiratory symptoms and lung diseases.

4. Carbon Monoxide (CO): It is particularly dangerous as it can prevent the blood from carrying oxygen to cells, tissues, and organs. It can be lethal at high levels and at lower concentrations; it can cause fatigue, chest pain in people with heart disease, and impaired vision and concentration.

5. Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs): These compounds can evaporate into the air and react with nitrogen oxides to form ozone, leading to respiratory problems, eye irritation, and reduced lung function.

6. Heavy Metals: Combusting fossil fuels can release heavy metals like mercury, lead, and arsenic into the atmosphere. These can have several detrimental health effects, including neurological damage in children (from lead) and immune system and heart function issues from mercury exposure.

Overall, the health impacts of these pollutants can range from minor irritations, such as coughing and eye irritation, to serious conditions, such as respiratory and heart diseases, and even premature death.

The extent of these health issues often depends on the level of exposure and pre-existing health conditions. These pollutants can also accentuate health problems, especially for the elderly and children.

So, in a nutshell, business as usual means that we keep releasing all of these compounds into the atmosphere, affecting our health regardless of whether human-induced climate change is happening.

Severe Weather Disasters

We know that severe weather disasters have increased during the last decades. For example, the U.S. experienced a historic number of billion-dollar disasters in 2023.

But since we assume a scenario where this disaster is not caused by human-induced climate change, this is how it should be, right? This means that there is nothing we can do to prevent severe weather events or mitigate their effects. Remember, we are in a scenario where we don’t change anything.

So then, we should get ready to keep combating these disasters while we do nothing to prevent their harm. Or maybe it’d make more sense to establish some mitigation measures. Oh no, some may call them “climate change mitigation measures” and suddenly become unnecessary under this scenario.

No Human-Induced Climate Change Is Happening BUT We Take Measures

Economy

We prepare our economy and society for when we run out of fossil fuels. We steadily win the race against the fossil fuels clock.

Environment and Pollution

We reduce atmospheric contaminants and prevent further oil spills. After all, these oil spills affect our tourism and food resources (i.e. environment and economy).

Human Health

We reduce the number of pollution-related illnesses, lower medical costs for the entire population, and improve the quality of life, especially for children, the elderly, and those living in big cities.

Severe Weather Disasters

We take some mitigation measures that help us reduce the costs — both in economic and human lives — of severe weather disasters, whether they are caused by natural phenomena or by human-induced climate change.

Wrapping up…

Upon reading all the consequences of not starting a steady energy transition and mitigation measures, I realize that doing nothing, whether human-induced climate change is happening or not, could be devastating on many fronts.

If we compare this scenario with one in which, even if human-induced climate change is a hoax, we take mitigation and adaptation measures — such as transitioning to green energies — we see many benefits for our present and future societies.

Sure, both climate change advocates and skeptics could be “hypothetically wrong.” But what could have the worst consequences, preparing for if it is real, or taking a leap of faith, waiting to see who’s right, and hoping for the best?

Don’t we get more benefits if we act as if we were certain that it is indeed happening and human-induced?