Will I Get To Visit Antarctica Before It Collapses?

Recent record-low sea ice levels remind us of climate change’s stark reality and the urgent need for action to protect our planet.

— Sílvia, you seem well-traveled; where have you been?

— Well, I have been very lucky. My work has taken me to all continents except for Antarctica!

There’s a reason I always emphasize that I haven’t been to Antarctica yet: I know it will happen within my lifetime. Even more exciting, I know that the day it happens, it won’t likely be because I paid for a vacation there but because some fieldwork is needed.

I have also been lucky to meet fascinating people throughout my career. People who work for NASA, spend months doing fieldwork in the Gobi desert, manage a research station in the middle of the Great Barrier Reef, or get approved for fieldwork in Antarctica. I’ve been in these types of situations enough times to know that if I play my cards right, I will be granted a permit, too. I already have my ice-climbing and mountaineering gear, and “the cold never bothered me anyway.”

But I still remember the last time I talked to someone who had been traveling to Antarctica for fieldwork almost yearly. “You know? It is not the same anymore. We can extract rocks from places that used to be covered in thick ice. We’ve even uncovered Antarctic dinosaurs, which is great but also a sign of something changing dramatically,” they said.

This conversation sat in my mind, so when I heard the latest news, I couldn’t help but feel agitated.

In the winter of 2023, the Antarctic sea ice extent plunged to record lows, covering over 2 million square kilometers less than usual. As a reference, this is ten times the size of the United Kingdom. And, of course, this dramatic reduction has scientists sounding the alarm. The research, led by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, puts this event in perspective.

Antarctic sea ice has steadily increased since satellite records began in 1978, peaking in 2015. However, the summer of 2023 saw a sudden and drastic decline. This has been described as a one-in-a-2000-year event, a rare statistical anomaly that highlights the extraordinary nature of the occurrence. According to the BAS study, such an event would have been extremely unlikely without the influence of climate change.

Dr. Rachel Diamond, the study’s lead author, explained that while the record low sea ice in 2023 was made more likely by climate change, it remains a very rare occurrence. “This is the first time this large set of climate models has been used to find out how unlikely 2023’s low sea ice actually was. We only have forty-five years of satellite measurements of sea ice, which makes it extremely difficult to evaluate changes in sea ice extent. This is where climate models come into their own,” Diamond said.

The BAS researchers used data from 18 different climate models to understand the probability and causes of such significant sea ice reduction. In other words, the team used models to predict the occurrence of an event like the 2023 record Antarctic sea ice low using 45-year satellite data. These models included scenarios where we experience and don’t experience climate change.

They found that the record-breaking minimum sea ice extent in 2023 would be a one-in-a-2000-year event without climate change. However, with the current trajectory of global temperature increases and rising emissions, the likelihood of such extreme events quadruples.

Let’s put this into perspective:

• Over an 80-year lifetime, the odds of being struck by lightning once are approximately 1 in 15,300.
• The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) states that the odds of a high school athlete making it to the pros in basketball are about 1 in 11,771.

So, in other words, you are more likely to be struck by lightning or become a pro basketball athlete than to experience an event like this without the effects of ongoing climate change. Wow!

Dr. Caroline Holmes, a co-author of the study, emphasized the role of climate change in increasing the frequency of these extreme events. “Strong climate change — i.e., the temperature changes we’re already seeing, and those expected if emissions continue to rise rapidly — in the models makes it four times more likely that we see such a big decline in sea ice extent. This suggests that 2023’s extreme low was made more likely by climate change,” she said.

The implications of shrinking Antarctic sea ice are far-reaching, affecting both local ecosystems and global climate systems. The study found that after such extreme sea ice loss, not all of the sea ice around Antarctica returns, even after twenty years. This points to a potential long-term shift in the Southern Ocean’s sea ice regime, which could have far-reaching impacts.

Antarctic sea ice plays a crucial role in global climate regulation. It acts as a reflective barrier, bouncing sunlight back into space and helping to cool the planet — known as ‘the Albedo effect’. The formation of sea ice also drives ocean currents by influencing the density and movement of seawater. These currents, in turn, regulate weather patterns and distribute heat around the globe.

Dr. Louise Sime, another co-author of the study, highlighted the importance of Antarctic sea ice for marine ecosystems. “The impacts of Antarctic sea ice staying low for over 20 years would be profound, including on local and global weather and on unique Southern Ocean ecosystems — including whales and penguins,” Sime said. The loss of sea ice could disrupt breeding grounds for species like emperor penguins and lead to changes in food availability for marine mammals and birds.

Read my fellow The New Climate writer Ricky Lanusse’s story on a soul-crushing example of how this affects baby emperor penguins. Side note: Emperor penguins are one of my three favorite animals, together with cheetahs and sea turtles, so this was especially sad for me to read.

Reducing Antarctic sea ice could significantly affect global sea levels on a broader scale. Sea ice does not directly contribute to sea level rise when it melts, but it acts as a protective barrier for the ice shelves and glaciers on the Antarctic continent. These ice shelves help to hold back the flow of glaciers into the ocean. Without the protective sea ice, these glaciers could accelerate their movement into the sea, contributing to rising sea levels.

The reduction of sea ice also means that the ocean absorbs more sunlight, leading to warmer sea temperatures. This can create a feedback loop, where warmer water further inhibits ice formation, leading to even more ice loss. This process, amplifies global warming and contributes to more extreme weather patterns worldwide.

The study explains that the exact reasons behind the record low sea ice extent in 2023 are complex, though. These include ocean processes, stored heat below the surface, and warm sea surface temperatures during the first half of 2023. Additionally, variations in north-to-south winds and storm systems also play a role.

The research emphasizes the need for continued monitoring and modeling to understand the full implications of these changes. “Studies like this one are critical to find out how likely rapid sea-ice losses are, and if sea ice is likely to stay low over the coming decades,” said Dr. Holmes.

The findings from the study serve as a wake-up call about the realities of climate change. The unprecedented low levels of Antarctic sea ice in 2023 highlight the urgency of addressing global warming and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. While the event was rare, the increasing likelihood of such extremes due to climate change is a cause for concern. Moreover, recovering from the event may take years of low temperatures, something we are not sure will happen any time soon.

As we grapple with the challenges of climate change, it is critical that we better understand the behavior of Antarctic sea ice and its broader impacts. The research highlights the interconnectedness of global systems and the consequences of environmental changes in one of the most remote parts of the planet.

In the meantime, I will need to start writing some emails so that I can experience the Antarctica as described in my childhood books, instead of a stressed ecosystem trying to find its new balance. And penguins. I really do want to see the emperor penguins.